《预测2025年房地产市场：机遇与挑战》

• Sure, New Year, New You, New Year different housing market.
• Tune in to hear what I say about the 2025 real estate and housing market.
• Let's discuss the current challenges in the housing market and the future predictions.
• What are the major life events affecting buying and refinancing?
• Spoiler alert: the housing situation may not drastically improve anytime soon.

sure New Year New You New Year different housing market H you're going to have to tune in to hear what I say about the 2025 real estate and housing market check this out ladies and gentlemen boys and girls children 18 plus you are tuned in to the lone officer podcast with me dust to know and and my main man Jay see John Coleman Dio what's popping hey are you still playing that creepy ass intro music yes I am are you planning on changing that up ever no maybe you know has something told you that that [ __ ] hits that's why you play it yes I think any amount of time spent on like logos or creative assets something like that it should take no longer than five minutes and that's how long I spent on it because anything else is just wasting time.

I would love to get like a voter poll going and I would love to too I would love to get a voter po to get the view I would love to get the votes and then ignore them all no John we are We Are Men of the people no no Dustin you are a man of the people I don't give a [ __ ] about the people Dustin I'm just here so I can pay my electric bills you know this so I can play my PlayStation profile and and yall know what sucks this is like a truth bomb U when it comes to tlop entertainment LLC this is written in the bylaws in the operating agreement I am 65% owner John is 35% owner except you know what this eff did to me he's fine giving me an extra 15% Equity he's like bro you got this care about the money he said when it comes to having a voice it is 5050 5050 take all the money you want take all the money you want just don't take away my voice just don't take away my creative freedom oh God you and Mel Gibson and Braveheart you want that damn freedom but I would like to hear from the people so check this out I don't have a way to put a poll up if you're tuning in on Spotify or apple com well I like the original one the the jams one was awesome until we got hit with that copyright infringement who sent it to us can we not buy him out at this point John you're getting that lower money now homie [ __ ] lower money it's gone that lower money is spent before I get it deposited Dustin you know that you're an employee of one of the fastest growing True Story by the way.

Like we got some big announcements coming on at lower right now like it makes me stoked cuz look I'm going to tell y'all straight up if anyone's asking transition is never fun it wasn't fun when I did it for years from my old company it's not fun when I go through it it's not fun when when we do it for the new company now just like at my old company just like at my new company we got some great human beings that go out of their way to make onboarding smooth but I'll tell you straight up my experience it's like taking a pile of turds and saying hey I got good news for you we're going to spray some frze on this so it don't smell bad and we're not going to make you eat it right but that's still a pile of turds right that's onboarding so onboarding is never fun it comes down to this I got to learn your technology I have to learn your people um who Moved My Cheese oh crap I move my cheese right that's in general what onboarding is like um but truth be told I look at just in my past 120 days mhm the things we're creating the things were're building the people were onboarding yeah the the buzz going on in the industry the amount of men and women reaching out to us mhm who are like we want to be a part of that yeah we want to be a part of the the future of mortgage lending we want to be a part of a mortgage company that is not only trying to become a top 10 lender they're trying to become a top five lender but more specifically the lender the lender that everyone else looks up to everyone else wants to work with or work for and it's been awesome it has truly been awesome but it's still onboarding.

What does that have to do with anything I said at the beginning of this I have no idea what did you say you said something about lower and getting paid and having a say a voice I said I don't my money is spent before I get it and then you use that as an opportunity to do a three minute promo saying how much you love lower was that what that was [ __ ] Jes you know what I didn't even that was even on the list today no it's just cuz you love you love lower so much you just you hope Dan Snyder makes this far into an episode but you don't have to worry about it cuz you just post it on your LinkedIn and um he'll hard it that was not even my purpose it's not purp not your purpose but your calling doesn't I started rambling and sometimes when I start rambling I can't figure out where I started and I try to make my way back but instead I keep on going down that rabbit hole further and further and further which makes it that much harder to Circle back to get to the I think today's topic was about like the it's going to be all about the housing market 2025 housing market I'll take this one will it get better no will it still be an inventory problem yes will the cost of goods go up because of all the tariffs being introduced by the new regime yes so things will cost more yes will you enjoy it no will you [ __ ] about it online yes will it be the same weather that we experienced for the past five yes will everything stay the same and we'll just do be in this stupid circle of endless news [ __ ] yes.

I mean I think we're done John I mean I could have said that the last episode save me 55 minutes but go ahead Dustin give me your predictions will rates go up moderately I think they may come down a little Maybe by a quarter quarter quarter percent only time will tell we don't no housing inventory that's still going to be rough and with the new tariffs coming in that lumber from Canada that's going to cost even more money so you know what that means more Apartments do you all know how how much it pains John Coleman to have to acknowledge that he now holds this type of information up in his Cranium I know that bothers you probably I lose I only there's limited real estate up there Dustin pun intended some some people sit through like like seminars or meetings and they're like I'm getting Dumber by the minute John gets piss he's like I'm getting smarter damn the more I sit here the more I know but just just people out there if you if you're wanting to buy a home and you're wondering is now the right time probably not cuz if you haven't bought one yet you can't afford one so keep renting and keep burning your money cuz no one else will give you that kind of feedback but I will oh well um I actually feel bad right now not about the people having to listening I know they're loving this they're like yes Dio why don't you let John talk more yes he gives us the truth Bob.

I figured out here's the trick um I make John come in at 10: to meet me yeah I'm usually you know running around like a chicken with my head cut off pissed off at something and then John has to listen to me vent for over a half an hour because he knows if I don't vent then I can't bring the energy to the podcast then I back him against a corner and we have to get two episodes done in record time which means I prevent him from being able to take his seven minute ghost smok a bowl break so then I get the John Coleman who is not numb to the world now it's like focused hey I think we're on a schedule hey let's hit these talking points hey yeah very this is what you get when you don't let let you go down to your when I don't have my bottle as my wife calls it when I don't have my baby bottle I get antsy and I get pissy so like yeah I need my baby bottle.

Oh I think the people are going to love this version this is awesome yeah brought to you by T 2025 brought to you by sobriety so go ahead tell me Dustin what the well you have me feeling bad I had no intention of of giving a lower plug I really didn't I had I had a point I wanted to make about that and I didn't even know where I was going with it so now I feel bad do you here's and we'll start the episode with this should you trust and use a loan officer that doesn't own a home themselves wow is if my L lives in an apartment I'm not using them uhuh I'm not gonna answer that why that's a great question I will answer that to the person who donates the most to our patreon account so y we're going there John bro I'll do a self deposit so yeah go ahead answer my question I put the money your money is my money that kind of doesn't really help that's like my wife Christmas shopping hey look at all these gifts I bought you you mean I bought yeah exactly.

I didn't want that I know yeah I don't like gifts for that reason like you know I like experience invite me somewhere throw a party I'll invite you to the bank can pay off this [ __ ] balance is that I'll fite you there yeah yeah no so um I I will get back to answering your question gosh that's a great so no you should I have a question for you okay I'll answer it yeah when are we going to have the patreon account up we all have hopes and dreams pod we five years by 2025 we are Jesus John that's three weeks from now December 15th of 2025 or January one cuz you business people love giving them a b q11 okay I would like it done by January 15th of 2025 all right I would also like the second YouTube channel officially launched by January january2 we could hear to that yeah we're going to have two YouTube channels y'all you heard it here first one is dedicated strictly to the podcast the other is dedicated to all of the other content the CRS of that comes about because of the podcast or because of our coaching community and um one will be the Lo podcast that is you go and watch our podcast the other will be something along the lines of the [ __ ] they didn't teach you in school and that's going to be more of your 8 to 12 minute training videos your your shorter Clips the stuff that maybe is like quick hitters but they're not all in intensive podcast episodes.

So what I heard you and then I want us to have patreon John for the podcast because that's what all the other cool successful hip podcaster doing is patreon because we're five years into doing this and we are six figures deep into investment and at some point at some point it would be nice for the people who like us for the people who are like I don't want you to ever stop doing this to give donations I mean look if we had I don't know like 12,000 people each give $3 I had 12,000 people giving me $3 well it is us it's an us thing John all right you going to say something yeah don't trust your loan officer if they live in Building seven instead of having a normal address no that's difficult my one everyone has to start somewhere I'm gonna answer your question I'm gonna answer your question um does a loan originator that has more life experience bring more value to their client or their customer yes I would like to believe that many professions and professionals that have more experience bring more value but I would also say they bring a certain way of doing things and that way may be an old school way it may not be a modern way or it may be tried and true but it's not what's hip and new and I though I'm a tried andrue person there's something to be said about being a part of Cutting Edge so I'm not going to say that a home buyer should not work with a loan originator who doesn't own their own home because what if the loan originator team owns 12 homes combined and what if that loan originator job is to answer the basic questions get the get the information but it's the team coming together to actually come up with the solution and then the originator is the one presenting the solution so it's not necessarily fair and like you said we all have to start somewhere we all have to start somewhere.

And I'm one I didn't own a home when I entered in the mortgage industry I entered Ed in the mortgage industry in June of 2004 I bought my first house in October of 2004 see how I teed you up for that Dustin I didn't even think about it I know you didn't think clean the key word I teed you up for it okay well thank you but let's go ahead and talk about the 2025 housing market although you so eloquently I think you got most of it right honestly what's going to go better than than this year let start with that okay here's what's going to go better yeah in 2025 I'm going to start with The Originators and I'm going to slide over to the home buyers perfect in 2025 hands down there are less of us Originators chasing slightly more transactions so when you look at the prediction of transactions for 2025 and by the way y'all this is not going to be good news the predictions coming out of the industry think tanks and Industry trade publication shout out to our friends at how yeah shout out to to to Logan Mami over at housing wire does an amazing job um I'm rocking it's funny if you're listening to us you have no idea I'm right now pointing to the hoodie that I'm wearing because it's cold enough outside in Central Florida in December I can wear a hoodie I'm rocking my housing wire hoodie today but um according to the industry think tanks and the and the Talking Heads the predictions from just October to to now we're in December we're predicting interest rates will be higher than we originally thought and we think that that the number of transactions the number of home sales will be lower than what we originally thought so that's like not good news.

That's basically saying hey we thought something was going to be X it's going to be slightly worse okay cool um but what I like about 2025 versus 2024 is going into the year there's less Originators that's less branches less mortgage companies less mortgage brokers less loan Originators that are going to be chasing slightly more transactions so even if we were chasing the same amount of transactions that's still a win but no we're like no y'all transactions will will marginally increase probably single digigit increase we look at number of transactions in 24 versus 25 you know it's going to be somewhere between like maybe a a 4 to 8% increase in transactions mortgage rates are going to hover gosh in that 5.75 to se to 6.75 range we may not even see 5.75 it may be closer to 6.3 to to 6.9 honestly would be would be the range but just having less of us chasing those transactions AO automatically makes it better right the way that I would um I would say it's like you know going to a person's house that ordered three pizzas and there are 24 people there versus going to that same house and they ordered three pizzas and a cheesy bread instead of 24 people there's 18 oh sweet slightly more food and there's less of us that that that have to share it so that's I think a positive if you're a home buyer is 25 going to be better than 24 not really not really meaning interest rates aren't going to be drastically better home prices are not predicted to go down in fact the national average aage so that means if you looked at six of the industry leading experts and you got their predictions and they're going to range right one one um prognosticator is going to say home prices are going to appreciate at 6% one prognosticator is going to say home prices are going to depreciate by 1% go down negative one so that $300,000 houses now we$ 297 oh wow yeah exactly um um put that your pipe and smokeing JC I would love to you that what would $3,000 buy you a month supply I'm not that crazy cuz I don't be smoking it's just Bowl so it would last me 3,000 yeah I get me through a year there you go so you can put that in your in your pipe and smoke put that in my pipe and smoker but um no it's it's if you average the Nega the point you're basically looking at 2.4 to 3.2% home appreciation so anyone sitting back waiting for home prices to get cheaper that's not going to happen in 2025 who okay if who would look what type of individual would would look to refi in 2025 uh the person looking to refi in 2025 is somebody well look we always have life events the people are looking to buy in 2025 life events life events okay those events did you get married the life event did you get divorced life event did you have a baby life event did your babies go off to college and now they're adults on their own life event did your job transfer you life event so there's like five major life events that will always I I don't say demand they'll always um they'll always be there regardless of what the market and the yeah they'll be um Catalyst all right they'll always be the Catalyst to somebody needing to sell or buy real estate which is why when I entered into the industry in 200 4 I told my family like look I'm not getting into this for the refi boom that I just missed I'm getting into this because people will be buying and selling homes whether rates are 3% or 133% and I want to focus on helping people buy and sell homes refinances are gravy they're cherries on top I do them my company does them I coach loan officers how to how to solicit and and offer those services but at the end of the day I don't Focus the bulk of my business on chasing reefi.

So the same life event that would cause somebody to need to refinance or also the same on to to purchase would be the Catalyst to potentially refinance like if you and I were married and we got divorced somebody keeps the house and somebody's got to move out okay well when that happens if our house has a bunch of equity in it there's a couple things that you want if you're the if you're the dude moving out I'm the dude staying uh you want your name off the mortgage and you want your Equity well I may have to refinance that to happen so I'm going have to go to the bank get get a new home loan get that home loan for x amount of dollars so I can give you your equity share and so I can refinance you off the mortgage to that that would be a reason for somebody to um refinance.

You're going to have people that refinance because quite honestly they're in a position financially where all of their wealth all of their assets are tied up into their home whether they put a large down payment whether they kept on applying principal payments to their home or their home just appreciated the way regardless of how their Equity was created they're waking up one day and they're saying I owe $250,000 on a house that I bought 10 years ago and today it's worth $650,000 I have $400,000 of my wealth it'd be like them purchasing $50,000 worth of Tesla stock MH and 10 years later that's worth $500,000 right they made an investment 10 years ago they purchased a home that home is now gone up in value well just like they could sell their Tesla stock and and make that $400,000 plus profit they can tap into their Equity through a refinance.

Now sometimes they tap through their Equity with the home equity line of credit but you ask me the question on refinance that's why they would do it so they may be sitting at a rate of three and a half% and they may have to refinance into a rate of 7% but what if were in a position in life where Junior needed braces [ __ ] was going off to college the car just broke down somehow someway they didn't expect this to happen and they don't know what happened but their $30,000 in credit card debt and their air conditioner on that home that they love it's on his last leg and oh by the way it'd be really nice to remodel the kitchen but they can't afford Junior's braces Cissy's going off to college and mom and dad would like to be able to help her a little bit but they can't help her F fully or wholeheartedly I guess they're going to have to go out and figure out a way to afford that $800 a month car payment because they need they need the new new car payment don't know what they're going to do about the AC but that's about 8 to 12 Grand once that thing does go and I guess that kitchen remodel is going to be a pipe dream but they could refinance their home and all of a sudden they don't owe 250,000 they owe 400,000 but they took 150 grand out they bought a nice certified pre-owned car for 40 Grand they paid for junior braces with 10 grand they allocated about $112,000 to help [ __ ] go off to college it's not a lot but at least it helps her get through the next two years maybe gives her 500 bucks a month to groceries or or utilities or books or whatever it is that that that they're able to do and they have the bathroom remodeled and they paid off the $30,000 of credit card debt and maybe they even put about I don't know 25 Grand in a savings account so that they can figure out the next time life throws them a curveball they're they quit putting on a credit card and they're going to that six-month emergency fund that they put together.

That would be a reason why in 2025 somebody would refinance it's going to be because a life event has forced them to do so such as divorce or they're staring at their overall wealth or financial picture and all of their money is tied up into their home and they need access to it so that they can put themselves in a much safer and more comfortable financial position and they do so by tapping to the equity through a cash out refund well said all right so the 2025 housing market um it's really cool Zillow did a good job last week of of of um really disseminating this information and I think the headline was it's going to be Rocky it's going to be Rocky what does rocky mean um Rocky means a little bit unpredictable we know where we're starting we have a good idea where we're Landing but we know that that course that 12-mon um flight pattern that we're going to be on there's going to be some expected turbulence and some unexpected turbulence like the housing market isn't going to be great in all markets like we have 50 states we have thousands of cities we need look at even the top 100 cities there's going to be cities that potentially are softer like could Boise Idaho be soft in 2025 could Austin Texas be soft in 2025 could the West Coast of Florida be solved in 2025 could parts of New York be softed in 2025 or parts of California like all of that's on the table um it doesn't mean that the national real estate market is going to be negative it just means that certain Pockets could definitely have their um more than fair share of turbulence.

Give me a prediction that coming from Dustin know and not something that you read even if it's way out of left field just be like ah my gut tells me I have no data to back this up but I think in 2025 blah like what is something that you know I think in 2025 that we are going to have lower interest rates than we anticipated and I think in 2025 once we have lower interest rates we are going to see the number of transactions Spike which means we end up having a better year than what was expected look prognosticators always get it wrong right because if you got it right every single time you would be predicting the future at which point you would be a trillionaire because you'd be able to predict everything that was going to happen and place bets for it to happen no that the world doesn't work that way we prognosticate based on the data and then we live life it's like one of my favorite I'm a butcher it but favorite Steve Jobs quotes says something along the lines of you can never connect the dots looking forward you can only connect the dots looking backwards meaning we embrace the journey we're on and we recognize and understand that we don't have a clear path we may have a Guiding Light we may have a North star we may have goals that we're trying to achieve but until we get to that next Milestone will we actually know the path that that that we need to take we look backwards in order to see the path we took um so yeah as a as prognosticators go I mean I mean think about it just about every year they're going to get it wrong there's six prognosticators that all gave their hypotheses yet two are going to be far too conservative ones going to be far too aggressive there's going to be a couple near misses and there's going to be one that kind of got it right okay so if you're asking me Dustin know and December 2024 going into December of 2025 I'm sorry January 2025 I'm going to tell you that mortgage rates will actually end up being better than expected because I think we are finally going to see um the data tell us what we already know which is the labor market is not as strong as we think it is and that the economy is not as robust as we think it is and because of that you you'll see the stock market pull back and you'll see the bond market do better and you'll see mortgage rates potentially come down what's maybe that's wishful thinking John I don't know what's the Goa moment that no one's talking about that you can see coming that like hey no one's talking about this but if you guys aren't aware of it you should be like something give me something that's going to happen like September of next year like hey no one's talking about it now but there something to look out for in the Horizon and then we can end this episode because I'm running out of memory card tape um gosh I don't have a I don't want to stay in my gotcha moment I don't even want to think it it would happen why you got to that's why it's called a gotcha.

You got to get it so like hey loan officers cuz we you say Keep Your Head on a swivel take what the defense is giving you I love my kids lower is awesome you know all the things that you preach and incessantly say what's one thing that's like hey if what's one thing nobody talks about because I could read all these Publications but I can't read so that's why I tune in the podcast and listening from you so but what's one thing that cuz that'll be dope cuz then I can Cho his clip up and like put it in black and white 5 months from now I'm like look at we predict political unrest there we go there political unrest whether it's on a global level or even on a national level um I think and it's interesting because I don't like you're so naive in your 20s you're clueless in your teens you're naive in your 20s um in your 30s you're typically so caught up in you yep that you don't care about anything or anybody else that's where I am now yeah you're because and and that's look I lived it you get into your 40s and it's like this is when the wisdom really starts to just like poke its head through right it's like that that little turtle that's that's coming out from the sand and the first thing you see is their nose and like maybe their right fin I think it's in your 50s and 60s that that Turtle actually makes it to see in the 70s as when it actually survived and it's coming back to lay lay eggs.

But um so at 46 I don't know if I said political unrest whether globally or nationally as my bigger concern because I'm now more acutely in tune to it whereas in my 30s I was so self-centered I couldn't be in my 20s I was so naive that it it it didn't like ever dawn on me maybe this has always been the case maybe what I'm experienced on the political geopolitical National or International level is what my mom would say it was like living in the 60s with the kennedies and the Cold War and the Cuban uh Missile Crisis or the 80s with the continuation of the Cold War and you know things that were going on in Lebanon and you know I so when I say that my caveat is I wonder if this is just the world as it always has been as it always has been but now that I'm no longer naive or I'm no longer extremely self-centered because I'm still self-centered but I'm not extremely self-centered that now I'm in my back half of my 40s like I'm closer to 50 than I am 40 at at this standpoint maybe I'm just more in tune therefore that's why I chose that as my answer I mean obviously you you have another pandemic right that that that was a brand new curveball thrown at us.

Do you think we're like more prepared as a society for something like that so if something like that happens we won't see rates go like 1 and a half% like won't be that kind of a oh 100% we've learned some variable valuable lessons we know what to do we know what not to do I think that's like anything in life like the more you do it the better you get at it I don't want another pandemic God forbid now I would like to go like relive covid lockdown three weeks out of the Year I wish we'd have like mandatory covid lockdown this sh the movie is called The Purge Dustin I don't think that ends well for too many people but um but no I don’t wish that upon us.

So if I have to answer your question and get this show wrapped up what I'm going to tell you is what I just told you like like political unrest would be like that one gotta moment um because I've already predicted that I don't think the economy and the labor market is going to be as strong and as robust in 2025 as many people think it's going to be so I think a lot of what we're seeing right now post election is emotional purchasing right it's it's it's hopeful um investment it's um in in other cases you call it a deadcat bounce you know it's just like a a quick shot in the arm but eventually reality is going to sit in set in and and you're going to realize that no there's been some underlying tones that have that have carried through for the past years and eventually the piper is going to need to get paid and and we've even alluded to that when we talk about the um the budget deficit.

But I've even read some really cool information since since we probably talked about the budget deficit that reminded me that in comparison when you like factor in for inflation and population size and GDP and everything else that goes into it that actually we've had worse or higher um deficit deficits and you know what that wasn't the budget deficit I'm sorry that was credit cards that was Consumer Debt OT Eisenberg did a phenomenal job through his econ 60 where he talked about all like a lot of Talking Heads want to discuss the concern of credit card debt had nothing to do with the um the the the US national debt that is an issue by the way that is an issue so there we go I'm going to point my finger on that what Ellie Eisenberg taught us was that we shouldn't be as freaked out about the dollar amount of collective credit card debt that you as consumers have because when you compare it to a the number of citizens we have compared to what we had in the past and you and you um you shift or you change your algorithm or you account for that and you account for how much incomes have grown like it's actually not as big of a deal as a lot of people would make you believe it is but the US debt and the US deficit is a major deal so that would be something that could be aha gotcha moment if we weren't going to go political unrest whether here in the US or globally we could say hey we really need to figure out and watch what's going on with that and that could be a gotcha moment because we don't want another pandemic to happen well said Dustin all right so on that note John that is the world according to do and JC as it pertains to the 2025 housing predictions what we're calling for a lot of what you saw in 24 is what we're going to see in 25 that's good news because look rates can go up they can go down or they can stay the same only one of those is good only one of those is bad [ __ ] only one of those is bad sorry Professor yes and at the end of the day shelter and housing is pretty high up on that hierarchy of needs and at some point people are going to need to sell their home and buy another house at some point they're going to be worn down and just realize this very well is our new normal get used to everyone who's been waiting I don't know what you're waiting for this is the new normal yep and I think we're going to see more of those people in 25 finally get fed up they get tired of waiting and they say f it I'm selling my house f it I'm coming off the sidelines to buy regardless if rates are 6.3 or 6.9 now's the right time because I'm graduating college I'm getting a new job I'm getting married I'm starting a family my my my kids are going off to college I want a downsize whatever the case may be those life events are still going to happen shelter is still high up on the hierarchy of needs home values are not going to go down mortgage rates are not going to drastically just drop off a cliff and we're going to see a lot of what we saw in 2024 except we have less mortgage professionals and less real estate professionals chasing that little bit of business so we will feel a slight pickup those of us that are in the industry well said does all right he's John I'm Dustin and you've just tuned in to the lone alster podcast make sure you have subscribed to our YouTube channel make sure you have given us a five star review on both apple and Spotify share us not once not twice but three times sign up for my newsletter I write it it comes out every Thursday you sign up by going to our website telop online.com and if you're a mortgage loan originator a branch manager a mortgage broker and you need business coaching or sales training or better yet how about both I invite you check out what we're doing at the tlop MLL coaching Community come become a member let us invest in your future success he's John Coleman I'm Dustin no and that's all the time we have for you today but we do look forward to catching you on the next episode Peace [Music]