就业遇冷，未来如何破局？ | 看木头姐深度解读经济新方向

Key Points:

• Employment Friday brings significant insights into August employment numbers.
• Fiscal policies are being adjusted to improve the deficit, aiming for a target of 3% of GDP.
• Real GDP growth is expected to surpass expectations, potentially leading to a surplus.
• Innovations in technology are being accelerated by AI, impacting various sectors positively.
• The relationship between money supply and inflation remains complex, with historical data indicating a potential decline in inflation.

Greetings, everyone. So it's Employment Friday again. This is the August employment numbers. They were filled with information, you know, that give us a sense of what'really going on out there.

So I going to spend a lot of time on the employment report when we get to those charts. And in the meantime, I'GOING to head directly into charts, starting with fiscal policy, monetary policy, economic indicators, and then market indicators. And of course, will weave innovation throughout the presentation, because there's a lot going on there, too.

All right, so we'start fiscal policy just keeping our eye on this target 3% deficit as a percent of GDP. You can see we've seen a small improvement. Tariffs are beginning to impact the deficit or improve the deficit. They'running somewhere between a 400 dollars, $500 billion rate, that'an annual rate, and that would get the deficit over one year to roughly 4.7, 4.8%. So continued progress, we expect.

This is a lightning rod issue for the market. And it's because the interest level is so high already, higher, as many people know, than the defense budget, that it seems that is going to be overwhelming. We won't be able to overcome this because just paying that interest bill is such a drain. And we are focused on it as well, but focused on ways to get it down to 3%.

Tariffs will pick away at it, but we think much more important besides the Doge cutbacks, which are still impacting government spending, with government layoffs featured prominently in the unemployment report. So those have a long way to go, actually.

And then the other thing that we're focused on is real GDP growth. And we believe, as we've said many times before, that real GDP growth starting later this year into 26 in time for the midterm elections.

We think it's going to surprise on the high side of expectations, significantly on the high side of expectations. And so we think that is going to be probably the biggest answer to the deficit falling as a percent of GDP. This was also the answer in the Reagan years moving into the Clinton years.

There we ended with a surplus, and we do expect a surplus. Maybe not in the next three years, but again, just like in the Reagan years, it takes time to turn the profligate spending around and correct for excesses. So within the next four to five years, we would not be surprised to see a surplus again, very dependent on real GDP growth.

And as we've talked about many times in the past, we do believe that we'ready for prime time for all of the innovation platforms around which we have centered our research and investing for years.

So robotics, energy storage, AI, multi oic sequencing in the life science space, and blockchain technology, all of them are being catalyzed by AI. Of course, AI can't catalyze itself, but you know what I mean. All of the other platforms are being catalyzed.

And I think the speed of change is going to be pretty shocking over the next few years. And there are shades of it or signs of it in the unemployment report. And we'get to that in a minute.

I just wanted to point to this chart as well because I have just taken a trip through Asia and it is clear that the only focus in Asia is on tariffs and those headlines. But they're not focused on the massive deregulation that's taking place in the United States.

Crypto we're seeing big changes there, of course, legislatively and also in the court system and in the regulatory system. So there we're seeing the first executive order, I think that President Trump rescinded. This was a Biden executive order was on AI to free up innovation in that space, nuclear energy, all kinds of energy to solve the power needs associated with AI and data centers. Huge deregulation, huge.

Now that is slower and moving by nature. But on our side you will see how much regulation has held back nuclear energy here in the United States and in Japan since the 70s. And we're rectifying this 50-year problem now at warp speed, at least for that sector.

And just to give you a sense, China is constructing today 28 large-scale nuclear reactors in the US we are not constructing one. We have been so constrained by regulation and the antidote to that has been small modular reactors. And those are proceeding apace.

Again, regulation takes time, but again proceeding pace. And we think from the largest to the micro nuclear reactors, we're moving into a nuclear age. When Brett Winton and I were at our last firm, Brett and his team authored a book, a big black book on nuclear and how safe and sustainable it was and is.

And then unfortunately, Fukushima happened in Japan and unraveled nuclear for yet another decade, more than a decade. Again, the regulators had the upper hand around the world. And now we're back. We're back. And so that's good. All of these are going to feed economic growth, importantly during the years ahead.

And you can see here tax changes that are going to encourage this. So manufacturing structures, if companies get their manufacturing structures up within the next three years, they dont have to be quite in service, but if they have them essentially finished and maybe to be put in surface a little later, they will be able to depreciate in one year the depreciation.

They will be able to expense in one year what normally would have taken 30 years to depreciate. So that's massive tax savings. And this is good for the next three years. And so we think there's going to be an explosion in manufacturing capacity and all other kinds of investing.

And we think there'going to be a huge amount of foreign direct investment, especially given the Trump administrations strong stance. But you can also see here equipment, domestic R and D software, these are fully expensed in year one.

Now, these changes have been made permanent. And as you can tell, they're aimed squarely at innovation. And so we think that's going to cause an explosion in the five platforms I've just mentioned. They're going into overdrive.

And so we think that's very exciting. And that's part of the growth story moving ahead. And importantly, it's part of the productivity boom we see emerging. And productivity is going to be very important in terms of not only holding inflation down, but driving it down.

And we've been saying this for quite some time. Inflation may seem stuck in the 2 to 3% range right now, and tariffs are aggravating that, of course. But we would not be surprised to see inflation drop in the years ahead to zero or even negative because we think the innovation that's taking place now is going to be pretty explosive and technologically enabled.

Innovation is deflationary by nature, follows learning curves, which are expressed in cost declines. It's all about efficiency. And so we think that's going to be a big part of the story.

And here you can see and I'REPEATED this a few times, but it is important in terms of attracting investment to the United States. Adjusting for what I just showed you in terms of the depreciation schedules, the effective corporate tax rate, the tax rate today is 21%, down from 35% in the first Trump administration.

He got it down to 21%. Now, they're not operating on the tax rate as much as they are the effective tax rate through these depreciation schedules. And that will get taxes down to roughly 12%.

I was just in Hong Kong, which prides itself on very low tax rates, corporate tax rates, and that has attracted a lot of investment. But if you look at the tax rates there versus in the United States at an effective tax rate of 12%, we are below Hong Kong's 16.5%.

I believe they have for very low levels of corporate income up to I can't 100,000, something like that, 8%, but beyond that. And that is what we're talking about, 16%. We are lower than the Hong Kong schedules. That's important and interesting.

And we're about as low as Ireland. Ireland's 12. I think it's a 12% tax rate, has attracted enormous investment, particularly in the pharmaceutical area and the tech sector. And we think a lot of that investment, again encouraged by the Trump administration in all kinds of ways, a lot of that will make its way back at least partially back.

So now onto monetary policy, so you can see here in the purple line is money growth, growth in money supply. You can also see going back to the early 60s, we've never seen money supply drop as much as it did in recent years. But then again, we never saw it boom as much as it did during COVID.

So that adjustment process is pretty much over. And you can see at 5% it's still below the average of this period. Really it's post World War II period. Now you can see the green line is CPI inflation.

The money supply has been pushed ahead by 18 months and many people think that the inflation rate follows with an 18-month lag. So they are concerned that inflation is turning up from roughly I think its 2.7% right now and will follow money growth higher.

And even today I think one of the Fed governors, Goolsby, said he's concerned about services inflation and we'll show you a chart in a moment about that. So this is top of mind for the Fed. I think that Chairman Powell is very focused on services inflation as well.

But we have reason to believe that services inflation is going to decelerate quite significantly. Housing or large parts of housing is a part of service inflation and I'll show you in a minute.

Housing price inflation is decelerating on the existing home sale side and continues to drop on a year-over-year basis on the new home side. And there's reason to believe that drop will deepen in the next six to nine months.

So I want to show you a very important chart now on why we think money supply growth is not going to fuel inflation or this recent acceleration is not going to fuel inflation. This is A chart of M2 velocity that is the green line and mapped against the labor participation rate.

Now velocity is the rate at which money turns over. And in 1997 it peaked in the United States and it had been increasing secularly for decades. It peaked, and as you can see it has been falling for the last 25 to 30 years. On balance now it is cyclical.

When we go through a downturn, a recession, velocity drops. And you can see here it collapsed during COVID. Why? Because people were very afraid. And so they held back their, their on spending, especially in the beginning, thinking that, you know, we were all going to lose our jobs.

The world was entering a global depression and we needed to save money, save it for that very rainy day. And so it collapsed cyclically. It has moved up, but it moved up. If you were to look at a longer-term chart, and we'provide that in the next in the know, it has moved up to where it should and now it is starting to fall again.

And we think there's reason for it to continue to fall cyclically. But this chart explains why it has dropped secularly. As the labor force participation rate has declined, velocity has declined.

Now, what may explain that may be two income households moving down to one as they have children. That's a possible explanation. And you know, in terms of other explanations, some of it is they don't declare they're in the labor force, they are in the GRY market.

And so that's a possible explanation as well, whether it involves immigration or what have you. And I'm sure there are many other reasons. But this is the only relationship that we have found to explain the decline, the secular decline in velocity.

So if the velocity of money is rolling over again, then that is going to diffuse money of its inflationary power. It takes away from that inflation risk because again, the rate of turnover in money goes down, savings rates go up, people are more conservative.

And from a cyclical point of view, we also think velocity is falling because, and we'll get into this more with the labor report, there are a lot of people who are afraid of losing their jobs because of AI and that's in the higher income households and automation generally.

And that's probably more on the manufacturing level. So I think there is concern out there. It's a question when, when I go around the world, everyone asks about jobs being displaced and destroyed by robots and AI.

And our answer from a secular point of view is technology is a net job creator. Sure, there's displacement in the short term, but these displaced jobs are usually mundane, boring, not interesting, tedious.

And there are two phenomena today that will offset any of this displacement. We have baby boomers retiring at an accelerated rate. And if you think about truck drivers, a lot of baby boomers have been the truck drivers. And there are big shortages there.

So autonomous trucking, we think is going to become very important in alleviating that labor shortage. So that's one good example. And then of course there has been, I think if I might have this number wrong, but the number of people leaving this country because for reasons associated with immigration, whether it's illegal or fear or what have you, is in the 1 to 2 million range.

And again, many of those jobs are in mundane areas that automation will help us improve, whether it's paperwork or leisure and hospitality work. So I think this couldn't happen at a better time given those demographic shifts.

Again though, that said, and I suggest you do this exercise, go to ChatGPT or Grok and ask it, prompt it. We're all programmers now, we can prompt it with natural language.

What kind of jobs will automation and AI create? And in the prompt suggest that it consults science fiction futurists, technologists, economists, strategists and then answer that question and you will find a very long list is the output.

And one of the jobs that I find interesting because again, it gets us thinking, wait a minute, there are whole new spaces being created literally here. So one is asteroid mining, right? So think about space, what kind of jobs are we going to see created there?

Think about blockchain and the digital world now that we have immutable digital property rights online. Didn't have it before, but now that we do, and you know, in a game, someone can win a Gucci skin and it's their skin and there's alone and there's proof of that, that is how a lot of young people are deriving social status these days.

And that's a whole new world that is just now being monetized. I think it's one reason also we're going to see roadblocks continue to flourish because it is so many things. It's not only a social site, a gaming site, young people are actually coding and they don't even know it and they are starting new businesses, learning how to run them.

So it's pretty exciting what's being created out there. But I have to tell you, I go around the world and there's just so much fear. Again, a reason we think velocity could continue to fall.

On to the next chart. So monetary policy, is it tight or easy? This chart which Dan Rodriguez at ARC pointed us to is the yield curve as measured by the two-year treasury yield relative to the three-month treasury yield and anything below zero, which you see here is tight monetary policy.

And you can see it has been tight for a very long time. And we think this is going to have disinflationary, if not deflationary ramifications with time. And it certainly fits into the narrative that President Trump and the administration have put forth.

Like hey, don't you see what's going on here? And on the next page is a different version of the yield curve. It's the ten-year treasury minus the two-year treasury yield.

Now this is in positive territory. But if you look at past recessions and those are in the shaded areas here, the steepening of the yield curve after an inversion tends to occur during a recession. And as you know, we've been talking about this rolling recession for the past three years.

Manufacturing has been negative for the past three years. Housing has been decimated over the past three years. Low and middle-income consumer has been hurt badly during the past three years. Higher interest rates, higher food prices, housing affordability.

So very difficult times. Now what I find interesting about this chart is sure again we're in this rolling recession. We think it's the final leg of the rolling recession. And what I'm eager to understand, as the Fed cuts rates, this will continue to steepen.

But if you look at the trend since 08 09, the trend has been down towards a flatter and flatter yield curve. We didn't get back into the 200 to 300 basis point range. The Fed was flooding the economy with money. We didn't.

What was this pointing to? And we think there's an underlying deflationary narrative built into the yield curve. We'll see if we get above the 150 with this easing cycle and we should know by the end of the year if we don't.

What that would tell us is that this deflationary narrative, I keep using the word narrative that we have, it will raise the probability that that is correct and that is the long bond picking up on that and not increasing as much out of fear of inflation as the Fed eases.

So stay tuned on this one. Should be very interesting. Inflation, okay? Lots of fear about it. This is trueflation, the truflation CPI. And as of this morning, again this is a real-time measure and it's tens of thousands of goods and services in real-time constantly.

Today we're at 1.9% and that's with tariffs getting into the inflation rate. They're certainly reflected in here and I think everybody is expecting a big burst of inflation because of tariffs and so far it hasnt happened.

And what I just discussed in terms of fear and velocity slowing down and all of that could be a reason here are consumer inflation expectations. So University of Michigan inflation expectations went wild.

Not so true on the Fed's measure of inflation expectations. So umich is a five-year expectation and it's up there at 3.5% over a five-year period. The Fed's is a three-year. It's at 3%.

We think both are going to come down dramatically during the next few years for reasons I have already described. And I do think Youish and I relied on that survey for gosh, they started it I think in the early 70s.

I wasn't in the business then but for my entire career has relied on it. It has been much more reliable at turning points in the cycle than other metrics. I think it has failed us this time and it seems like a change in their survey methodology has really hurt that particular metric.

Here is economic uncertainty, and it is. This is I think this is a Fed measure if I'm not mistaken. But it's the uncertainty index for the United States. You can see that it spike. It has spiked with higher rates and tariffs and all the drama around politics and so forth.

It's improving but is not down to where it has been historically. And again all of the uncertainties businesses are uncertain. Am I going to lose my business to AI and automation? So is not just employees, it's businesses who are uncertain. Again another reason for the velocity of money to drop.

Here I'll just feature what has happened in the last few quarters when it comes to GDP. And you can see the headline GDP in the second quarter. 3.3% pretty good. But you have to compare that to the second quarter minus 0.5.

So really on average it's been 1/2, 1.2% at an annualized rate maybe. And you can see the distortion caused by trade. Huge increase in imports in the first quarter which is a drag on GDP and a turnaround in the other direction in the second quarter.

Not as much of a drag. So it didn't drag GDP down as much. And you can see inventories are kind of the flip of that. A lot of imports went into inventories and have been taken out of inventories.

So huge distortions associated with trade. You can see right below there core GDP which is PCE PL fixed investment. This is what the Fed really pays attention to from a real growth point of view. Very slow now that said for the third quarter the Atlanta Fed's GDP now is up to 3.5%

and we see how that's revised in the next few weeks with more numbers. But historically the headline GDP which seemed fine was driven by government and government-related sectors disproportionately in this last cycle.

So government spending itself that is unwinding healthcare and education, much of that is government funded and so we're starting to lose those and it will have to be the private sector that comes through and that will be a very healthy mix for markets and we think that's going to happen.

Here's a real GDP versus productivity. So real GDP in purple productivity in green productivity was revised up in this latest quarter I think on a year-over-year basis yes in the 2% range.

And now we think and this just goes back to what do we think is going to happen during the next few years? We actually think this is going to go up for cyclical reasons.

You see after the shaded areas which are recession you get a bounce in productivity and we think after this rolling recession we will get that bounce but we think it's going to continue and will be more sustained than it has been historically in the 5% plus range.

And real GDP is constructed by productivity output per man hour times the labor force growth and that's certainly potential GDP. So that could be in the 5 to 7% range.

Many people think this is an outrageous forecast but we really do believe that this technology revolution is going to cause a step-function increase in productivity.

So on to the next chart. So back to current conditions. You can see here 50 is the demarcation point between expansion and contraction. Manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years.

Services aren't in great shape according to this MA measure either. They're tending towards 50 which is half of the industry's rising half declining and relative to history quite low and more typical of recessionary times.

On this next chart you can see real PCE x healthcare and it is starting to today again the consumers getting concerned. And here is part of the reason.

Well here's auto sales. Auto sales are coming back down I think in the latest it says here 16. Yeah it should be 16.1 that was the last. I think that's right. 16.1 was the last reading.

So it's coming back down after the tariff buying binge. Here you can see personal savings low by historical standards up since 22 when the Fed started jacking rates up.

We think it could go up further if more and more people are fearful about employment. And let me just talk about what happened in the employment report.

So unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% but employment itself as measured by nonarm payroll again something for everyone in this report all the time. Nonarm payroll only an increase of 22,000.

Now remember the assumption in that 22,000 is that roughly 100,000 jobs were created by the net birth of new of startups. And I don't know if that's happening. We'll see in the revision in the next, I think it's the next few weeks we'll see that RO revision that could take a lot of these numbers into negative territory.

In fact, one of the revisions took June into negative territory and again we, we, we have to adjust for what's going on with immigration right now. It could be that it could be cyclical, we don't know.

Manufacturing was still negative. But the big news there is the work week dropped significantly. It dropped 0.5%. So not only are the number of jobs shrinking, but the work week is shrinking. That's not a good sign.

And then surprisingly, tech is falling. Maybe not. We're hearing a lot of coding. Jobs are not there anymore. Financial services, maybe there are efficiencies now thanks to AI and blockchain technology.

Business services, including temporary help, very negative. Government negative, down 16. On another negative note is the duration of unemployment.

And I will get to that in a minute. I know we have it in here somewhere. I expected it to be there by now. But we'll get back there and I will show you how the duration of employment of unemployment is increasing and it never got back to levels that, that we saw pre-COVID and it's moving back up.

So it's at 24.5 weeks on average is the average duration of unemployment. And if you look at the low in 22 we were at 19 in 20 before COVID we were at roughly 10 before we shot up to 32 in COVID.

So we are back up to 24.5. In past recessions the duration of the unemployment rate has been roughly 20, so we're above that. So hopefully I'll find that later on in this chart. I mean in this presentation here's capital spending.

AI power is really starting to power, so to speak, this number. But so are those new tax rules because they were made retroactive to January 1st, which was really important.

Phasing in tax cuts or depreciation schedules would have deferred capital spending. Now it's being accelerated and I think it was held back a little bit about uncertainty around uncertainty with the tax package.

Here'the trade deficit, you can see the tariffs pre-buying got us into a massive deficit. We'curing that now.

Now if we are right on what is going to happen then the trade deficit may not go down as much as President Trump would expect or like because we do think real GDP growth will be stronger than expected and we cant produce everything in the United States.

So we think imports will stay stronger, surprisingly strong in the years ahead. Now here is we spend a little time on housing just because it's wow, what a story.

Here you see pending home sales deteriorating again below 0809. That's really an affordability problem. And you know whole generation is being deprived of their first homes.

And of course President Trump is going to make this fixing this his next year's or this next year's priority as we move into those midterm elections.

Here you can see both new and existing home sales very low by historical standards. You can see new 1 family homes for sale. Look at that inventory increase.

It is almost as high as it was pre-0809. Pre that crisis. How are they going to clear this inventory of homes? Its expensive to carry these homes.

Well they're probably going to have to cut prices. They've already been so-called buying down loans which means they subsidized the mortgage rate that's not working.

I think actual price cuts which will get into the CPI and be one reason that the CPI is going to surprise significantly on the low side of expectations.

Here is the year-over-year change in prices. So you can see existing home prices, you see what happened during COVID up to 25% on a year-over-year basis.

They're down into low single digits now, probably will decline. Especially if we're right that new home prices actually start falling a little faster than they have been during the past three years on a year-over-year basis. Keep us honest.

I feature the dollar because there are so many headlines about it and you can see it has had a correction. It has not broken its uptrend for the last 15 years.

It probably in a new range but we think if we're right about this supercharged or turbocharged expansion with innovation at the leading edge we think that the return on investment associated with that innovation and with these new tax laws and with the deregulation is going to go up.

The return on investment in the US is going to go up relative to that in the rest of the world. Here you can see the trade-weighted dollar from a different angle.

The previous one, this one was based on six major trading partners. This is 26 trading partners and on that basis again the uptrend has not been broken.

We are in a little bit of a range just showing you corporate profits, how healthy they are and this is the best measure of profits. It'adjusted for IVA and CCA and that means its adjusted for distortions associated with both inflation and deflation.

So these are real profits and they look very healthy. Now we know that a lot of companies have not been investing enough for this new age and it could be that margins come under pressure for that reason.

Here is the same for the S&P 500. It has been obviously helping the stock market. We think quality of earnings is going to become very important moving forward and those harnessing new technologies and driving growth that way are going to, we think are going to benefit mightily.

Here's another inflation chart. Now into market indicators going nowhere as measured by commodity prices for the last 45 years.

The peak was in 07 and it was because of a lot of errant monetary and fiscal policy leaving 95. I mean the late 90s. So the Fed eased and eased and eased for all kinds of reasons caused that massive inflation.

If anything, I think this is going to break down before it breaks out here is that metals to gold index. I will say it's curious. Gold breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals.

What is that telling us? I still keep in the back of my mind is there something, is there a deflationary bust out there that's causing this and fears associated with it?

Maybe in China, I don't know. I know that the property cycle has not gotten better there and we also know that investment spending is still up to 40% of GDP in China.

We're only at 18% in the United States. So there are still excesses. They're funding a lot of things including nuclear and we think that's good and all kinds of power that's good, good for their competitive advantage.

But to get to 40% I have a feeling there's a lot of wasted spending going on and that is a recipe for deflation. Longer term copper, the commodity with the PhD it came down because of tariffs but the uptrend is in place just that gold is going up so much faster.

Here again paying a lot of attention to this the bears are saying we're going back into the 70s and just a bust on this basis meaning S&P pricing going down, collapsing relative to gold.

And you can see there's a tug of war taking place here. So stay tuned. On this basis it looks much more hopeful and especially because OPEC is saying that it wants to increase supply even more.

So this is the S&P price relative to oil liquid gold. And so it is a leading indicator we think it is and points we think to S&P relative to gold moving back up here is the long-term treasury yield over 45 years and you can see it broke out, it's now levitating.

We would not be surprised in the next, say half-year to see it go back to that 3% range. That base that you see in the 2010-20 range is probably now going to be the low for this cycle.

And we don't want these rates to go back to zero because that was a very unhealthy environment. We think the market's working much better now.

And according to this metric, which is high yield spreads the market, the market is seeing very little risk out there. We think there are excesses in the bond market and we're certainly seeing, I think this week record highs in commercial office delinquencies.

I think 11.7% was the number higher than an 08-09 by roughly a percentage point. And yet, you know, no problem according to this much broader-based measure, we think that the search for yield out there is where the excesses are and there's too much risk being taken in the bond market by investors.

And this last chart, bitcoin to gold, so has not broken its uptrend but has had a setback in here as bitcoin has settled down and gold has continued to go up.

Our bet is that bitcoin will continue this uptrend over time. But we are paying attention, trying to understand what is gold telegraphing relative to bitcoin.

So with that, I think I've peppered in a lot of innovation. I'll end with this. Bret Winton, our chief futurist, featured a chart today during our brainstorm which compared what's going on now with chat, GBT and other LLMs chatbots in the consumer space relative to uptake in the Internet days on PCs.

And what we're seeing it suggests that we are today where we were with the Internet in 1995 and 1995 through 1999 was the biggest burst in the growth sector of the market in history.

It went too far, too much capital chasing too few opportunities too soon. And so it ended badly. But we're just at the beginning of this and we're pretty excited about it and we think that this is much more on the consumer side in the enterprise.

So you've heard about the MIT that the Wall Street Journal featured saying no productivity gains from AI, very hard to see. And I was on a panel with two people who are very senior, one heading up U.S. commercial and we asked this question and she said, well, it is true what happens with Palantir is they'll go in because the CEO has asked them to come in.

And they bring the CTO, CEO, all the seniors into the conversation. The CTO takes it back and says, okay, well, we need to do a McKinsey study around this. So they pull the pilot from Palantir, and then one to two years later, when there are no productivity gains, they come back to Palantir with a completely restructured technology, a staff, mostly because there has been so much foot dragging.

And they then engage. And the productivity gains that Palantir is helping enterprises evolve and enjoy are astounding. Astounding. So just listen to one of their quarterly calls to give you a sense of how astounding they are.

And so we think the productivity cycle is going to be very powerful. So with that, enjoy the weekend, and we'll see you next month on Employment Friday.